基于生物免疫学的安徽省城市生态系统承载力研究

Study on Urban Ecological Carrying Capacity of Anhui Province Based on Biological Immunology

依据城市生态系统健康发展与生物免疫系统的相似性,利用安徽省统计资料数据,建立科学完善的评价指标体系,运用生物免疫模型研究了2005—2014年安徽省城市生态系统承载力和社会经济发展压力的变化趋势,并判断城市化发展的可持续状态。结果表明:1)安徽省城市生态系统承载力水平呈前期下降后期增长的趋势;城市生态系统自然承载力指数变化大致与城市生态系统综合承载力指数变化趋势相似;2005—2014年,安徽省城市生态获得性承载力指数持续上升。2)安徽省资源消耗指数、环境污染指数和城市生态系统压力指数均呈缓慢增长趋势,压力持续增加可能会导致城市承载力超载。3)除2006和2013年安徽省城市生态系统承载力处于协调发展状态外,其余年份城市生态系统变化率小于社会经济压力变化率,城市生态系统承载力发展不可持续。由于获得性承载力的滞后性,未来还应重点考虑提高资源利用率、增大生态弹性系数和改变经济发展模式来实现人地关系协调发展。

Research on carrying capacity,regarded as the basis for the sustainable development of resources and the environment,is gaining more and more attention. According to the role of urban ecological carrying capacity similar to the role of the human immune system in human health,the model of biological immunology was used to evaluate urban ecological carrying capacity and socio-economic development pressure by establishing a sound scientific indicator system with Anhui Province statistics data during 2005—2014. The results show that: 1) From 2005 to 2014 the overall carrying capacity index of urban ecosystem showed a trend of first decrease and then increase,the natural carrying capacity index had a similar the trend to comprehensive carrying capacity of urban ecosystem and the acquired carrying capacity of urban ecosystem gradually increased since 2005. 2) The index of resource consumption,environmental pollution and urban ecosystem pressure all showed a slow increase,which the sustained growth of urban ecosystem pressure may lead to overloading of urban carrying capacity. 3) Rates of change between urban ecosystem carrying capacity and economic and social development pressure showed that urban ecological carrying capacity in Anhui Province does not have a favorable sustainable development state( except in the year of 2006 and 2013). Because of hysteresis the acquired carrying capacity of urban ecosystem,more attention is needed on improving resource utilization efficiency,increasing the ecological elasticity coefficient and changing model of economic development to realize the harmonious development of relationship of man and natural environment in the future.