江苏省县域非农化与乡村发展的耦合分析

Research on the Coupling between Non-agriculturalization and Rural Development at County Level in Jiangsu Province

从"要素—结构—功能"的视角构建多要素非农化指数和乡村多功能发展指数,分析2000—2015年江苏省县域非农化与乡村发展的时空格局及耦合关系。结果表明:江苏省县域非农化和乡村发展指数均呈现显著的空间集聚特征,非农化指数高值区为环太湖地区,乡村发展指数高值区为苏南沿江地区,而低值区均为苏北北部地区。2000—2015年全省县域非农化指数和乡村发展指数均普遍提高,但其年均变化率呈明显的南北区域差异,其中,苏北非农化进程最快,而乡村发展水平提高最快的为苏中地区。通过耦合分析发现,县域非农化与乡村发展之间的耦合关系不断增强,但存在比较明显的拐点。当非农化指数小于0.79时,两者之间呈现比较明显的正向耦合关系;当非农化指数大于0.79时,两者之间呈现负向耦合关系,且两者之间的相关性减弱。

According to the logic of"element-structure-function",this paper focused on the coupling between non-agriculturalization and rural development in Jiangsu Province during 2000—2015. Non-agricultural index( NAI) was introduced to measure the degree of non-agriculturalization at county level,which was evaluated by three elements including rural land,rural population and rural industry. And the level of rural development( RDI)was evaluated from three functional dimensions of ecological resources,economy and social development at county level. On the one hand,The results showed that NAIs and RDIs had significant spatial-temporal variation and those increased from 2000 to 2015. Both NAIs and RDIs showed the significant features of spatial agglomeration in Jiangsu,and the NAIs were high surrounding the Taihu areas,and the RDIs were high along the Yangtze river of the southern Jiangsu,and both were low in the north part of northern Jiangsu. The average annual change rates of the non-agriculturalization elements were lowest in southern Jiangsu,highest in northern Jiangsu,while,that of the functional indexes of rural development were highest in the middle of Jiangsu,lowest in southern Jiangsu. On the other hand,the results showed that the coupling relationship between non-agriculturalization and rural development was constantly strengthening in the period of 2000—2015. However,there seemed to be an obvious inflection point.When NAI was less than 0.79,RDI would increase significantly with the growth of NAI. Then,when NAI was over than 0.79,RDI would decrease with the growth of NAI,and the coupling relationship between NAI and RDI would be weakened.