权力转移理论视角下的中俄美中亚格局演变

The Evolution of Strategic Structure Shaped by China,Russia and the US in Central Asia from the Perspective of Power Transition Theory

近年来,中俄美分别提出了自己的中亚战略。俄罗斯和美国试图巩固自己在中亚的地位,在中国"一带一路"规划中,中亚地区也被囊括在"丝绸之路经济带"的范畴之内,形成三国中亚战略交错和对冲的局面。基于奥根斯基的权力转移理论,对这一事实进行深入的解读和剖析,可以发现,冷战后中亚地区经历了从权力真空到美俄争霸,再到中俄美不等边三角关系形成的不同发展阶段,客观上形成了权力转移的事实。中俄美三者的中亚战略在地区指向方面有较多的重叠,但从战略意图到具体实施具有较大差异性。中国无意参与中亚地区争霸,但由于国家实力与战略意愿的提升,客观上会导致中国在该地区权力和影响力的上升。

In recent years, China, Russia and the United States have respectively proposed their strategiesconcerning Central Asia. Russia and the United States seek to consolidate their position in Central Asia. Inthe Belt and Road Initiative, the Central Asian region has been incorporated into the “Silk Road EconomicBelt”. The situation of strategic overlap and conflict among the three countries has thus been formed. Basedon the power transition theory, a thorough analysis of the circumstance reveals that, after the Cold War, theCentral Asian region has experienced three stages： power vacuum, competition between the US and Russia,and a scalene triangle relationship among China, Russia and the US, which objectively shaped the fact thatthe power is being transferred. Strategies of China, Russia and the US concerning this region have over？lapped in various aspects, but it is quite different in both strategic intent and its implementation. AlthoughChina has no intention to participate in the Central Asian hegemony, the development of China？s nationalstrength and strategic vision will lead to the increase of China？s power and influence in the region.