基于数理分析的经济增长与电力消费关系研究

Research on the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption based on mathematical analysis

由于受产业调整、经济危机等多种因素影响,地区经济与电力发展变化复杂,电力部门对电力供求关系预测及分析难度日益加大。针对这种现象,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应和灰色关联度的方法对地区宏观经济与电力需求关联关系进行系统的分析,并运用此分析结果,进行电力需求预测。通过无锡地区案例计算验证了该套方法的实用性。

Due to the industry adjustment, economic crisis and other factors, the regional economy and power development change is complex, and electric power department forecast and analysis the relationship between power supply and demand increasing difficulty. In view of this phenomenon, we will analysis the correlation of macro economy and electricity demand by using eointegration test, granger causality test, impulse response and the method of grey correlation.Then use the analysis result, forecast the electric power demand. The practicability of this method is verified by the case of Wuxi.