基于CSSCI的人文社科期刊文献老化风险率研究

Analysis of Literature Obsolescence for Humanities and Social Sciences Journals Based on CSSCI Data

文献老化方面的研究已有相当多的成果,但其实证研究仍然不够深入。本文采用生存分析方法,以CSSCI为数据来源,选取9个学科期刊2000-2014年的引文年代数据,从引文年代峰值和共时半衰期角度对文献老化风险率进行实证研究。CSSCI收录的人文社科期刊中,社会学、哲学和心理学这3个学科的期刊文献老化风险率较低;引文年代峰值出现得越早,期刊文献的老化风险率越高;有现时效用的文献在第10年之后逐渐转变为档案性文献,文献老化风险率在文献发表第13年后达到高峰。

Literature obsolescence is still a challenging issue, particularly with the shortage of insightful empirical studies. Using a survival analysis method, and by choosing citation data of the years 2000 to 2014 from CSSCI, this paper empirically studies the risk rate of literature obsolescence with journals in nine subjects based on the peak year of citation and synchronic half-life. The paper shows that literature obsolescence in the three journal subjects of soci- ology, philosophy, and psychology has low risk. The earlier the citation peak appears, the higher the risk rate of the literature obsolescence that occurs. Current literature slowly turns into archive literature ten years after publication, and the risk rate of literature obsolescence reaches its peak thirteen years after publication.