研判市场前景 探究行业变革——“第四届全国石油经济学术年会、第十六次石油统计学术研讨会暨2018年油气市场形势研讨会”会议综述

Overview of the 4^(th) National Petroleum Economic Academic Annual Meeting, the 16^(th) Petroleum Statistical Seminar and the 2018 Oil and Gas Market Seminar

2017年世界经济同步复苏、形势向好但不确定性增大,全球化走到十字路口。"十九大"后中国经济进入发展新阶段,中国开始进入世界中心,成为影响世界发展的重要力量。中东处于新旧秩序交替期,较长时间内将呈现集体震荡状态。俄美博弈对国际能源形势影响很大,加强中俄能源合作具有多重战略意义。国际油价复苏乏力,全球非化石能源进一步发展,能源转型势在必行,石油工业进入"转型升级、提质增效"的关键阶段,"改革创新"成为整个石油工业发展的关键词。中国新能源汽车发展迅猛,但2030年前对油品替代尚不具有颠覆性。美国重启原油出口将对全球石油市场产生重要影响。中国成品油市场已步入调整升级阶段,2018年或将迎来全面市场化。未来5年全球LNG供应总体过剩,天然气价格将维持低位。2017年我国天然气市场爆发式增长,给冬季保供带来巨大困难,长期看需要引入机制性应对措施。未来我国天然气需求将保持较快增长趋势。散煤治理是我国实施控煤治霾和能源转型的重要抓手,但财政补贴是把双刃剑。

The world economy is recovering simultaneously at present but there is still uncertainty. The domestic economy has entered a new stage of development since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China＇s entry into the world center has become an important force affecting world development. The Middle East is in a period of alternating between the old and the new, and will be in a state of collective shock for a long time. The Russian and American games have a great influence on the international energy situation, and the energy cooperation between China and Russia is of multiple strategic significance. Under the light recovery of oil price, and non-fossil energy further development at the same time, it is imperative to carry out energy transformation. The oil industry is entering a crucial stage of＂transformation and upgrading, improvement of quality and efficiency＂; ＂Innovation＂ has become the key word of the development of the industry. China＇s new energy vehicles are developing rapidly while replacing oil products by 2030 is not disruptive. The oil industry faces multiple challenges and therefore oil companies should take precautions earlier since the opening of the US oil export era would have an important impact on the global oil market and the domestic oil refining industry in 2018 would meet the coming of the comprehensive marketization. Over the next 5 years, global LNG supplies are oversupplied, and natural gas prices will remain low. In 2017, China＇s natural gas market has exploded a lot, it is very difficult to provide for winter peak warranty. In the future, China＇s natural gas demand growth will maintain a fast growth trend. Fiscal subsidy can be a double-edged sword and the clean coal management should take the sustainable development approach.