摘要
受经济放缓、油价下跌等因素影响,近3年我国天然气消费维持"个位数"增幅。受经济回暖,工业产业发展形势好转,"煤改气"推动力度加大的影响,2017年上半年我国天然气消费增量为150.7亿立方米,超过2016全年的增量。根据历史消费规律及第三季度增长情况,预计2017年我国天然气消费量为2307亿立方米,增幅达16.4%,增量超过300亿立方米,成为历史新高。市场消费高增长将带来保供的高压力,预计2017年冬季供气高峰期供需达到紧平衡,如果出现极端天气,将存在"气荒"风险。根据目前我国的资源和基础设施条件,为了减少保供压力,应合理推动天然气市场发展,并利用价格杠杆加大对市场的引导,促进调峰设施建设,实现市场安全平稳运行。
Affected by economic slowdown and oil price＇s decline, China＇s natural gas consumption in the past 3 years maintained ＂single digit＂ growth. Because of economic recovery, improving industrial development, and ＂coal to gas＂ facilitation, China＇s natural gas consumption increment reached 15.07 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2017, surpassing that of all last year. According to the historical consumption features and the third quarter growth, China＇s natural gas consumption is expected to be 230,700 million cubic meters in 2017, with an increase by 16.4 percent, an increase of more than 30 billion cubic meters with a record high. However, high growth in market consumption will accordingly bring high pressure and it is expected that the supply and demand of winter in 2017 will reach a tight balance. If extreme weather occurs, there will might be a risk of gas shortage. According to the current conditions of resources and infrastructure conditions, in order to reduce the bartender for pressure, China should promote the development of the natural gas market, use price leverage to increase market guidance, promote the peak shaving facilities construction, and realize smooth and safe operation of the market.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2017年第11期60-65,87,共7页
International Petroleum Economics
