我国对“一带一路”沿线国家OFDI的环境效应

Empirical Analysis on the Environmental Effects of China's OFDI to Countries Along “The Belt and Road”

本文从母国环境责任的视角切入国际投资对东道国环境影响的讨论,选取"一带一路"沿线50个国家2003—2013年环境与社会经济发展的空间面板数据,采用不同的估计方法实证分析了我国OFDI对"一带一路"沿线国家环境的影响。结果表明,中国OFDI对"一带一路"沿线国家环境产生了积极的"污染光环"效应,而其他国家的整体投资则对"一带一路"沿线国家环境产生了消极的"污染天堂"效应。进一步的研究表明,其他国家对"一带一路"相关国家投资的环境效应还存在差异性,而中国对外投资的环境效应则没有出现差异效应。

From the view of investment country＇s environmental liability, this paper discusses the impacts of for- eign direct investment on the environment of host countries. Based on the spatial panel data of 50 countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂ from the year of 2003 to 2013, the article carries out the empirical analysis about the environ- mental effects of China＇s OFDI to countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂. The results show that China＇s OFDI dis- played ＂pollution halo＂ effects on the environment of host countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂, while investment from other countries displayed ＂pollution haven＂ effects on the environment of host countries. Further research shows that other countries put a discriminating policy into the practice of OFDI to countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂, while China＇s OFDI policy is without discrimination. Moreover, the empirical results show that the population density has significant negative correlation with pollution emission of countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂. Before the econometrical analysis, the spatial autocorrelation test is carried out to determine whether the spatial econometrical method is needed. This paper employed both Moran＇s I and Geary＇s C to test the global spatial auto- correlation of the panel data. The test results of Moran＇s I and Geary＇s C showed there is significant spatial autocorre- lation in the selected panel data. Meanwhile, the test result of local spatial autocorrelation further confirmed there is significant spatial autocorrelation among China＇s OFDI to countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂. Therefore, the irrele- vance hypothesis of classical method is no longer existed due to the spatial autocorrelation of the panel data, and the follow-up empirical research must be carried out by using the spatial econometric method. According to the results of the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis （ ESDA）, the spatial autocorrelation of all ex- planatory variables selected in this paper is significant. Therefore, this paper uses the Spatial Durbin Model（SDM） to carry out an in-depth empirical analysis on the spatial spillover environmental effects of China＇s OFDI to countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂. Our empirical analysis obtained the following findings ：Firstly, the empirical results con- sistently show that, China＇s OFDI to countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂ displayed ＂pollution halo＂ effect, namely, China＇s OFDI reduces the environmental pollution of relevant countries, and this effect is without difference, which implies China＇s OFDI has no discrimination to countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂. Secondly, the environment effects of FDI from other countries exists difference. The estimated result with the whole sample showed that FDI from other countries aggravated host countries＇ environmental pollution,which is ＂pollution haven＂ effect. Whereas, ＂pollution halo＂ effect is displayed with the sample of countries with higher economic level. The differentiation of environment effect shows that the discriminatory foreign investment policy was implemented in other countries. Thirdly, the population density is negatively related to the environmental pollution of countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂. The spatial differences of economic structure and population distribution among countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂ formed the special distribution pattern：higher pollution emission with lower population density and lower pollution emission with higher population density, which leads to the negative relationship between the population density and environmental pollution. Policy suggestions are as follows. Firstly, it＇s of great necessity to optimize the investment industry structure of China＇s OFDI to countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂. A dynamic integration should be employed between China＇s excess capacity and the host country＇s needs of the industrial structure adjustment, as achieve the bilateral win-win cooperation. Secondly, the investment body structure of China＇s enterprises and regions should be optimized as well. At present,the enterprises involved in the investment to ＂the Belt and Road＂ are mainly from Beijing, Shang- hai, Guangdong and Zhejiang, and the investment gives priority to state-owned enterprises. Therefore, it is necessary to expand the investment body by the agency of involving more provinces and private enterprises. Finally, positive publicity and platform construction are necessary to improve the transparency of policy, as is helpful to eliminate the relevant countries＇ doubts upon China＇s international investment. A well-operated public information platform would greatly promote the implementation process of China＇s ＂the Belt and Road＂ strategy and lead to the win-win a- chievements in more fields.