20世纪60年代以来美国犯罪走势述评

Comment on the Trend of US Crime Since 1960s

以20世纪60年代中期、80年代初、90年代初、21世纪初为节点,美国的犯罪趋势大致是:犯罪数和犯罪率双激增、犯罪数高位波动而犯罪率波动下降、犯罪率和犯罪数双下降、犯罪数犯罪率低位波动。对此,美国学界、警界先后提出了许多原因说,但又大都遭到质疑或不能全面解释美国犯罪趋势变化过程。实际上,在增加历史纵深和国际比较的情况下对那些原因说进行分析、筛查,则会发现其中一些原因说还是颇有见地的,并基本可以确信导致美国犯罪趋势发生上述变化的原因,主要在于美国青少年比重由增加转为下降、刑事政策在20世纪80年代初期趋于强硬,以及该国政治、经济、文化因素中出现了相应变化。

In the mid -1960s, early 1980s, early 1990s and early 1990s, the crime trend in the United States was roughly as follows ： both the number of crimes and the crime rate doubled ; the number of crimes fluctuated at a high level and the crime rate fluctuated downward; both the number of crimes and the crime rate decreased; both the number of crimes and the crime rate fluctuated downward. In this regard , the American academy and the police have made many cause descriptions, but most have been questioned or cannot fully explain the process of changes in US crime trends. In fact, analysis and screening these causes in the case of increasing the history depth and in- ternational comparison we will find some of them are quite insightful. And they can basically convince the reasons for the changes of the US crime trends, which mainly for the proportion of young people in the United States from the increase to decline, the criminal policy in the early 80s of last century tense, and the country＇ s political, eco- nomic and cultural factors in the corresponding changes.