安徽省产业结构升级、技术进步与能源效率间的动态关系

Technological Progress and Energy Efficiency in Anhui Province

采用向量自回归(VAR)模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等统计方法,研究产业结构升级、技术进步与安徽省能源效率间的动态关系。研究发现:短期内技术进步对能源效率有负面效应,但从长期来看,技术进步对提高能源效率的影响最大、贡献度最高;产业结构升级对技术进步有显著的促进作用。可能的对策建议:调整产业结构,降低产业结构抑制能源效率的速度;依靠技术进步,加大新能源技术投入;优化产业结构升级,加快技术进步,间接提高能源效率。

The dynamic relationship between industrial structure upgrading, technological progress and energy efficiency in Anhui Province is studied by means of vector autoregressive （VAR） model, impulse response function and variance decomposition. Results show that： The effect of technological progress on energy efficiency is negative, but in the long run, technological progress has the highest contribution on improving energy efficiency. The upgrading of industrial structure has a significant role in promoting technological progress. Possible suggestion： Adjust the industrial structure to reduce the rate of industrial structure to reduce energy efficiency. To enhance energy efficiency, by relying on technological progress and increasing new energy technology investment so as to optimize industrial structure upgrade and speeding up technological progress.