中国投资在“一带一路”沿线国家的区位分布及政治风险实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Regional Distribution and the Political Risk of China's Investment in the Countries of “The Belt and Road”

为了对中国推行的"一带一路"发展政策进行较为全面的风险评估,文章基于WGI评价体系,以被投资国家的政治风险为研究对象,采用所建的模型对2004~2015年统计年鉴的数据进行了多元回归计算。分析得出:中国对"一带一路"周边国家进行投资时,对发达国家和发展中国家存有不同的风险抵御策略,这些差异与中国的投资目的——推行共商共建共享有关。在投资的过程中,中国企业承担政治风险的能力有明显的提升,这为建立沿线国家的政治风险预警机制提供了理论参考。

In order to comprehensively assess the risks of the Belt and Road Initiative pushed forward by China, the paper takes the political risks of invested countries as research objects, and a model is constructed to make multiple regression calculation on the data from statistical yearbook from 2004 to 2015. The analysis shows that China has different risk prevention strategies to devel- oped counties and developing countries when making investment in the countries, which is mainly related to the investment purpose of China--the principle of achieving shared growth through dis- cussion and collaboration. During the investment process, the abilities for Chinese enterprises to undertake political risks are greatly improved, which provides a theoretical reference for countries along the road to build up their early warning mechanisms.