适应经济发展水平的高等教育结构调整——中美比较的视角

Adjustment of Higher Education Structure to Promote Economic Development——Comparison of China and USA

基于中美最近30多年的经济发展、产业结构和就业结构等数据的比较分析发现:第一,中国近几年GDP增速放缓,维持在7%-8%之间将成为我国经济发展的新常态。即便如此,中国的经济总量有望在2021年成为全球第一,人均GDP有望在2030年达到2万美元;第二,按照改革开放以来中国的发展速度进行估计,在2030年,第一产业产值占比将低于6%,第二产业产值占比将降至29.3%,第三产业产值占比将达65%;第三,在2026年,第一产业的劳动力占比将下降到3.7%,第二产业降至35.7%,第三产业将超过60%,接近发达国家水平。第四,美国的产业结构、就业结构和专业结构之间的匹配度很强,错位幅度控制在4个百分点以内,而中国的错位幅度很大,产业结构和就业结构错位幅度高达20个百分点,高校毕业生的专业结构和行业分布间的错位幅度接近50个百分点。

Based on the comparative analysis of the data in economic development,industrial structure and employment stricture between China and USA,we found:1) China 's GDP 's growth rate has slowed in recent years and its grow rate will stay from 7 % to 8 %.Even so,China's economic aggregate is expected to become the world's largest in 2021,and its GDP per capital is expected to reach $ 20,000 by 2030; 2) According to the pace of development in China since the Reform and Opening up,in 2030,the proportion of the first industry output value will be lower than 6 % and that of the second and third industry will reach to 29.3 % and 65 % respectively; 3) In 2026,the proportion of labor in the first industry will decline to 3.7 %,while that of the secondary and third industry will fall to 35.7 % and exceed 60 % respectively which is close to the level of developed country; 4),the matched-degree of America's industrial structure,employment structure and major structure is very good(displacement amplitude control within 4 %),while China's displacement amplitude is very big,which displacement amplitude between industrial structure and employment structure is 20 % and that between major structure and industry structure is close to 50 %.