农业专利技术扩散的时空规律——以水稻抛秧技术为例

The Spatio-temporal Law of Diffusion of Agricultural Patent Technology:A Case of Rice Seedling Throwing Technologies

[目的/意义]在我国粮食安全战略的大背景下,加强农业新技术的推广应用是维持粮食增产丰收的主要途径,农业新技术扩散的时空规律研究具有重要意义。[方法/过程]以水稻抛秧专利技术为例,建立农业新技术扩散的时空模型:空间维度,构建Bass、MI和SWMI等三种网络模型,探索农业专利技术的空间扩散规律;时间维度,以专利累计数据为基础,拟合农业技术扩散的生命周期模型;最后,融合时空两个维度,总结技术扩散的演化、增长规律及其累积效应。[结果/结论]水稻抛秧专利扩散实证研究结果表明:SWMI模型能较好地模拟水稻抛秧专利技术的扩散过程,其扩散方式主要受省际间"亲密型"关系影响;水稻抛秧技术的发展主要经历了两个生命周期,抛秧机技术在整个生命周期发展中占主导力量;水稻抛秧专利技术扩散具有东北和东部沿海两个增长极,形成向内陆地区逐渐发展的显著规律;各区域在水稻抛秧专利技术发展方面总体水平较低,且处于非均衡状态;毗邻省市间存在显著的技术溢出效应,表现出版块聚集特征。

[Purpose/Significance]Under the background of food security in China,to popularize the newagricultural technologies is one of important approaches for increasing production of grains,and thus it is meaningful to study the spatio-temporal lawof newagricultural technologies' diffusion.[Method/Process]Taking rice seedling throwing technologies for example,the paper constructed several models to identify the laws. First,three spatial network models including Bass,MI and SWMI were used to explore the spatial diffusion principles.Second,a model was built to fit the life cycle of development of agricultural technologies based on patent data. Third,a spatio-temporal lawwas found by summarizing the revolution and increasing rules and accumulation effect.[Result/Conclusion]Some conclusions of rice seedling throwing technologies were drawn as follows: first,the SWMI model is the best for simulating the diffusion process of rice seedling throwing technologies which was mainly influenced by close relations among provinces; second,the development of rice seedling throwing technologies covered two life cycles which were mainly depended on technologies about rice seedling thrower; third,there were two developing poles including northeast and eastern coastal regions,from which to interior lands some significant rules of technological diffusion existed; fourth,national technological development level was lowin all and it was not balanced among different provinces; finally,significant overfloweffect existed among neighboring provinces,and it caused technological aggregation in some isolated regions.