“一带一路”沿线国家能源供给潜力与能源地缘政治格局分析

National energy supply potential and energy geopolitical pattern along "The Belt and Road"

"一带一路"沿线地区包括了我国最重要的国际能源供给区域,也是我国能源通道面临风险最集中的地区。本文针对"一带一路"沿线12个石油供给国,基于与中国石油贸易合作的视角,从收益和风险两个维度分别构建评价体系,综合分析中美日俄等大国的能源地缘政治格局,构建中国国际石油合作收益—风险矩阵。研究发现:从合作收益来看,与沙特阿拉伯未来开展大规模石油合作收益最高,其次为俄罗斯。从风险的评价来看,与伊拉克合作风险最高,其次为阿塞拜疆和伊朗。通过收益—风险矩阵,将所有国家划分为高风险—高收益、低风险—高收益、高风险—低收益、低风险—低收益四类,其中沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、科威特、哈萨克斯坦为高收益低风险国家,可作为优选合作对象;

Based on the perspective of China＇s oil trade cooperation with 12oil supply countries along ＂The Belt and Road＂, this paper constructed an e-valuation system from two dimensions of revenue and risk to do a hierarchyanalysis respectively. Furthermore, this paper constructed an oil trade coop-eration revenue-risk matrix among China and the relevant countries, and com-prehensively analyzed the energy geopolitical pattern among the powerful coun-tries including China, US, Russia and Japan. The study found that from theperspective of cooperation-revenue, Saudi Arabia can bring the highest revenueon China’ s future large-scale oil trade cooperation, followed by Russia. Fromthe point of view of risk evaluation, the highest risk of cooperation lies inIraq, followed by Azerbaijan and Iran. Through the revenue-risk matrix, allthe countries are divided into four categories： high risk-high revenue, lowrisk-high revenue, high risk-low revenue and low risk-low revenue. The classi-fication result showed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait and Kazakhstan arelow risk-high revenue countries, which can be chosen as the preferred part-ners. Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Brunei are high risk-low revenue countrieswith the lowest cooperation potential. In addition, ＂The Belt and Road＂ areais facing a complex energy geopolitical situation with intertwined powerfulforces. To ensure the energy demands and interests in sucha competitive envi-ronment, China is imperative to make a breakthrough in national policy and re-gional cooperation.