中国出口贸易的地理格局演化及其影响因素研究——基于1984年~2013年中国出口贸易数据的实证分析

Evolution of geographic concentration and influential factors of Chinese export trade— based on the empirical analysis of Chinese export data from 1984 to 2013

新常态经济发展背景下,我国出口贸易市场的地理格局正进入深度重构期。根据1984年~2013年的中国出口贸易数据,运用地理集中度指数和灰色关联度等方法,分析中国对外贸易地理集中度的时空演化特征及其影响因素,旨在促进新时期我国出口贸易政策的创新实践。研究发现,中国出口贸易地理集中指数总体呈下降趋势;三个重要演化阶段存在差异化的主导影响因素;非农产业的劳动人口比重和出口商品价格指数成为两大长期性影响因素;近十年来人民币汇率的灰色关联序呈现不断提高趋势。

Against the background of ＇ New Normal＇ economic development inChina, there has been the deep restructuring of economic-geographic patternsof Chinese export since 2011. Using Chinese export data for internationalcommodity trade, the paper examines the evolutionary characteristics atdifferent stages and their respective major influential factors, which haveimpact on geographic concentration of Chinese export trade from 1984 to 2013.It is mainly through analyzing its index of geographic concentration and thedegree of grey correlation, in order to promote the innovation of Chinainternational trade policy for the future. The result indicates that the indexof geographic concentration of Chinese export has been continually decliningover the last three decades. However, there are very different factorsinfluencing the geographic concentration of Chinese export during threestages. Especially, the structure of labour force and the export price indexhave been more important than other factors in the long term. It is alsonoticeable that the grey correlation of RMB exchange rate is increasinglygrowing, especially from 2005＇s policy reform of RMB exchange rate.