广西地区台湾杉人工林经济评价研究

Economic Analysis of Taiwania cryptomerioides Plantations in Guangxi

本研究以广西地区31a生台湾杉人工林为研究材料,进行项目投资风险评估,为该树种的培育与推广种植提供参考依据。采用经济学的动态序列分析、敏感性分析和静态盈亏分析等方法展开投资项目的风险评估。结果表明:31a生台湾杉人工林内部收益率达到峰值为19.04%,投资项目财务净现值为35 541.13元/hm2,总体水平高于当地经济水平;台湾杉人工林在第26a经营期内部收益率最高为19.04%;台湾杉人工林投资项目受木材价格影响最为敏感。总结得出,台湾杉人工林项目投资经济利润大,风险小,适应广西当地种植,该林分最佳轮伐期为第26a。

The study focused on 31 aTaiwania cryptomerioides plantation in Guangxi province to conduct project investment risk evaluation serving forest production and cultivation.Here dynamic sequence analysis,sensitivity analysis,static break even analysis were applied to risk assessment on the investment projects.The results showed that the internal rate of return of Taiwaniacryptomerioides plantation reached a peak of 19.04%in 31 a,investment project financial net present value was 35541.13 yuan/ha,the overall level higher than the local economic level;Taiwania cryptomerioides plantation at 26 awas the highest（19.04%）of internal rate of return in the operation period.The plantation investment projects by the timber price was the most sensitive to effect.In a word,Taiwania flousiana plantation project has higher economic value,is less risky,and is suitable for Guangxi,with the optimal rotation age at 26.