香港及大陆的经济政策对香港航运业的影响

Historical Changes in the Port and Shipping Industry in Hong Kong under the Policies of Hong Kong and China's Mainland

利用市场集中度中的CRn和HHI指标、空间格局统计中的标准差椭圆以及路径选择模型分析香港航运业的发展变化,结果发现:1)香港的自由港政策间接增加了香港港的货物运输量,促进其港口航运业的发展。2)中国大陆的改革开放政策使得香港的港航运输业比20世纪80年代有了进一步的提升,航运业的发展速度位居世界前列。3)中国加入WTO促进了大陆和香港航运业的共同发展,但香港的吞吐量增速远远低于中国大陆的上海、深圳等港口。4)中国大陆的保税港区与启运港退税政策使得大陆的港口竞争力超越香港,香港的港航运输业进入缓慢发展期。即,香港的航运业的发展主要历经3个阶段:20世纪70―90年代的快速增长期、2000―2005年的稳定发展期、2005―2015年的速度放缓期。

Based on the group for the port in Hong Kong and some coastal ports in China＇s mainland, the concentration ratio and Herfindahl-Hirschman index of the container throughputs were used to analyze the status of the port and shipping industry in Hong Kong in the port group. Compared with the ports in China＇s mainland in the port group, the pace of development of the port and shipping industry in Hong Kong has gradually slowed down and lagged behind that of China＇s mainland. And then, the standard deviation ellipse of port container throughput was used to get that the center of gravity of port transportation in the port group has been transferred from Hong Kong to China＇s mainland. The reason why the port and shipping industry in Hong Kong will make such a change is mainly due to the implementation of the relevant economic policies in Hong Kong and China＇s mainland. The study found that： 1） The free port policy in Hong Kong has played a huge role, and the free port policy in Hong Kong indirectly increased the volume of cargo of Hong Kong port and promotes the development of its port and shipping industry. The policy of reform and opening up in China＇s mainland made the port and shipping industry in Hong Kong a further improvement and the pace of development of the port and shipping industry ranked the top in the world. Because China＇s mainland ports were not able to meet all their export needs during the construction phase, and at the same time, under the attraction of the free port policy, most of China＇s goods choose to import and export from Hong Kong. 2） The increased export demand of China has stimulated the rapid development of ports in China＇s mainland. Since its accession to the WTO, the ports of China＇s mainland and Hong Kong have taken the share of the export demand of China. Although Hong Kong＇s free port policy has led Hong Kong to assume greater export volume, the pace of development of both is at a fair level. 3） After the implementation of the bonded port policy and the tax rebate policy in the ports of China＇s mainland, the tax advantages of Hong Kong port is gradually weakened. The competitiveness of ports in the mainland surpassed that of Hong Kong and the export demand undertaken gradually surpassed that of Hong Kong Port. Namely, the port and shipping industry in Hong Kong has experienced three development stages： rapid growth from the 1970s-1990s, solid growth from 2000-2005, and sluggish growth from 2006-2015. However, economic policy is not the only factor that affected the development of the port and shipping industry in Hong Kong. The fluctuation of the port and shipping industry in Hong Kong is also greatly related to the current decline of the global shipping industry and the tendency of the ports moving from centralized to balanced. Although the development of the port and shipping industry in Hong Kong is lagging behind at present, the implementation of the strategy of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay Area will be an opportunity for the further development of the port and shipping industry in Hong Kong.