中国科技创新对经济增长的支撑作用研究

Research on the Role of China's Scientific and Technological Innovation in Supporting Economic Growth

为了从动态视角分析中国科技创新是否支撑中国经济增长,该文提出了Network DEA-Malmquist指数法,建立全要素生产率、技术进步、技术效率改进和各阶段的效率变化等各种效率指标之间的联系。对中国省级数据的实证研究结果表明,第一阶段技术进步是推动第一阶段效率变化的主要原因,第二阶段技术效率改进是推动第二阶段效率变化的主要原因;科技创新对中国经济增长的支撑作用较低。技术进步、第二阶段的效率变化差距是导致东中部全要素生产率差距的主要原因,对东西部也同样如此。仅上海、天津、江苏、北京、广东全要素生产率呈现正增长;TFP以及两个阶段效率在省际之间呈现出"强者恒强、弱者恒弱"的变化趋势。新研究方法将全要素生产率增长的黑箱打开,有利于提高政策的针对性。

To analyze whether scientific and technological innovation support China＇s economic growth from the dynamic perspective,network DEA-Malmquist index is introduced in this paper to establish the linkage among various productivity indicators such as total factor productivity,technological progress,technical efficiency improvement and efficiency change at various stages.The empirical analysis based on the provincial data in China shows that,technological progress is the major driving force of efficiency change in the first stage,while technical efficiency improvement is the major driving force of efficiency change in the second stage.The scientific and technological innovation plays a less supporting role in China＇s economic growth.Technological progress,the efficiency change difference in the second stage are the primary reason that leads to the TFP difference between the east and central regions and that of the east and west regions.Only the TFP of Shanghai,Tianjin,Jiangsu,Beijing and Guangdong have exhibited positive growth;TFP and the efficiency change in the two stages among provinces have showed the dynamic trend of ＂the strong is always strong,the weak is always weak＂ between different provinces.The new analytical approach has opened the black box of TFP growth,which is conducive to policy relevance improvement.