中国城镇化对水资源利用的影响研究——基于水足迹视角和空间动态面板数据

Study on the Impact of Urbanization on Water Resources Utilization in China——A Perspective based on Water Footprint and Spatial Dynamic Panel Data

该文基于水足迹视角和空间动态面板数据对城镇化对水资源利用的影响进行了实证分析。结果发现:城镇化和水足迹均存在空间自相关,水足迹存在空间溢出效应;城镇化提高了全国和三大地区水足迹,其通过经济规模效应、人口规模效应、投资拉动效应促使水足迹提高,其中东部地区城镇化的投资拉动效应影响水足迹不显著,通过要素集聚效应、人力资本积累效应、技术进步效应、产业结构效应降低了我国和三大地区水足迹,但全国和中西部地区城镇化的技术进步效应和产业结构效应影响水足迹不显著;分类型水足迹看,三大地区城镇化均降低了农业用水水足迹,其中东部地区城镇化的降低作用最大,三大地区城镇化均提高了工业用水水足迹、生活用水水足迹、生态环境补水水足迹、水污染足迹,其中东部地区城镇化的提高作用最小,另该地区城镇化导致虚拟水水足迹下降,中西部地区结论与之相反。因此,提高城镇化质量,落实新型城镇化战略,更加有效合理地利用水资源,显得十分必要。

Based on the perspective of water footprint and spatial dynamic panel data,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact of urbanization on water resources utilization.The empirical results show that urbanization and water footprint have spatial auto-correlation,and there is spatial spillover effect of the water footprint;urbanization has increased the water footprint of the country and the three regions and it increases the water footprint by economic scale effect,population scale effect and investment stimulating effect in the country and the three regions,the investment stimulating effect is not significant in the eastern region.Urbanization has reduced the water footprint by the factor agglomeration effect,human capital accumulation effect,technological progress effect and industrial structure effect in the country and the three regions,but technological progress effect and industrial structure effect do not leave significant impact on the water footprint for the whole country and the middle and the west regions.From the classification of water footprint,the urbanization have reduced the agricultural water footprint in the three regions,with the reduction effect being the highest in the eastern region.Urbanization has increased industrial water footprint,living water footprint,ecological and environmental water footprint and water pollution footprint in all three regions,with the improvement effect being the least in the eastern region,and that the urbanization in this region has reduced the water footprint of the virtual water.The middle and the west regions hold opposite conclusions.Therefore,we must improve the urbanization quality,implement new urbanization strategy,and use water resources in a more effective and reasonable way.