中国累积暴雨与自然和人文因素的关联性分析

Analysis on the Relationship Between Accumulative Heavy Rainfall and Natural and Anthropogenic Factors in China

极端降水事件带来的严重灾害已经引起越来越多的关注,气候变化与极端降水之间的关系成为最热的科学前沿问题。本文对1951—2010年中国659个气象站日暴雨观测记录进行分析。结果表明,快速城镇化可能触发了中国大面积暴雨的显著增加。中国年代际暴雨雨量、雨日和雨强大面积显著增加,增幅分别达68.71%、60.15%、11.52%,站点数的增幅相应为84.22%、84.22%和54.48%,并呈现出"迅速增加—缓慢增加—迅速增加"的时间变化过程。快速城镇化因素对中国暴雨雨量、雨日和雨强的方差解释分别为61.54%、58.48%和65.54%,包括第二产业产值(GDP 2)、城镇人口比例(UP)、年平均霾日数(HD)在内的快速城镇化因素,极有可能是中国大面积暴雨增加的主因。中国县级总人口数和能见度日数年均值的面板数据与中国年代际暴雨雨量、雨日和雨强成显著相关关系,其空间相关系数由20世纪50年代至21世纪00年代逐渐增加,县级总人口系数分别由0.35、0.36、0.40增加到0.54、0.55、0.58,能见度日数年均值相关系数由0.36、0.38、0.48增加到0.55、0.57、0.58,进一步表明快速城镇化触发了中国年代际大面积暴雨的显著增加。

Recent studies have noted a worldwide increase in the occurrence of extreme-precipitation events, this increase has been attributed to warming climate.Although other anthropogenic factors are recognized to be important, their relative contributions remain unclear.This paper used daily rainfall data from 659 meteorological stations in China,large scale climatic and anthropogenic indices to identify major causes and quantify their contribution.The results showed that, the decadal heavy rainfall amount （ HRA ）, heavy rainfall days （ HRD ） and heavy rainfall intensity （ HRI ） increased to 68.71% ,60.15%, 11.52%, and the increasing range of station number were 84.22% ,84.22% ,54.48%, presented a ＂rapid increase-slow increase- rapid increase＂ in the time change process .The analysis suggested that although this trend could be explained by both large-scale climate phenomena and regional anthropogenic activities,the latter such as urbanization,industrialization and associated air pollution had the strongest influence. Contributing roughly at the same magnitude, such factors explain 61.54%, 58.48% and 65.54% of the variance in HRA, HRD, and HRI respectively. The expansion of spatial distribution of HRA and HRD over time showed a statistically significant and increasing correlation with the spatial distribution of population density and annual low-visibility days.Chinese total population at the county level ,visibility of panel data and heavy rainfall amount, heavy rainfall days, heavy rainfall intensity in china had significant correlation, the spatial correlation coefficient increase gradually from the 1950s to 2000s,the county population increased from 0.35,0.36,0.40 to 0.54,0.55,0.58 respectively,visibility days average increased from 0.36,0.38,0.48 to 0.55,0.57,0.58, further evidence of rapid urbanization had triggered a significant increase in heavy rainfall in China.