“东亚模式”的启迪与中国经济增长“结构之谜”的揭示

The Enlightenment of the East Asian Model and the Revelation of China's Economic Growth Structure Puzzle

"东亚模式"经历了"结构性加速"与"结构性减速"的整个过程,"中国模式"与"东亚模式"是殊途同归,抑或是能够走出超越"东亚模式"的大国之路?本文基于"东亚模式"发展历程的整体评价,并结合中国现实,通过与"东亚模式"的代表性经济体——日本及"亚洲四小龙"在产业结构、人口结构、投资消费结构、外贸结构以及城乡收入结构上进行比较,透视中国经济的可行性空间。参照东亚国家和地区经济发展经验,本文使用中国地级市面板数据,针对中国经济增长的"结构之谜"通过算术平均法将五个经济结构指标合成为经济结构指数,合成的经济结构指数与经济增长呈现出"倒U"型曲线的关系,且东、中、西部城市分别处于"倒U"型曲线的不同阶段,形成一个大国"雁阵"模式,此外,五个经济结构单独对经济增长的影响也都不尽相同。

Summary ： Since the reform and opening up, China has achieved more than 30 years of rapid economic growth. However, since 2012, China＇s economic growth has declined dramatically, alerting economics scholars and leading to the debate on whether China will fall into the ＂middle income trap＂. As part of the East Asian economy, China＇s cultural background is similar to that of Japan and the Four Asian Dragons which have successfully escaped the middle income trap. Therefore, analysis of the acceleration and deceleration of economic growth of the East Asian Model can explain the evolution of China＇s economic development and provide a backdrop for dealing with China＇s economic slowdown. Researchers have attempted to explain the East Asian Model from a structural perspective, with the view that East Asia＇s economic growth has experienced structural acceleration and structural deceleration. These concepts were first proposed by Yuan （2012） , who argued that development of the service industry was the main reason for the decelerating of GDP growth in developed countries; subsequently, these concepts have been generalized. Cai （2013） believes that the decline of the demographic dividend in East Asian economies is the main reason for their conversion from structural acceleration to structural deceleration; and the Research Group on China＇s Economic Growth （2012, 2013） , Shen ＆ Teng （2013）, and Lu et al. （2016） have extended the concept of structural factors. This paper argues for studying China＇s economic growth by the construction of a comprehensive structural system and depicts the effects of five economic structural indicators--industrial structure, population structure, investment and consumption structure, foreign trade structure, and urban-rural income structure. The paper analyzes the structural characteristics of the East Asian Model, comparing them with the structural features of China＇s economic development process to explain China＇s economic growth structure puzzle： the impacts of resource endowment changes and structural transformation on the path of economic growth since China＇s reform and opening up. The arithmetic mean method was used to synthesize the five indicators into a comprehensive economic structure index. Panel data on prefecture-level cities were used to measure impacts on economic growth of the economic structure index, and the five indicators were analyzed at a micro level. The results showed an inverted U curve relationship between the economic structure index and economic growth; and they showed eastern, middle, and western cities at stages of the inverted U curve, forming the Wild Goose mode of a large country, which eases structural deceleration pressure. The five indicators all have had their own effect on economic growth. The paper provides a new perspective on the reasons for China＇s economic deceleration and provides theoretical and empirical support for building on China＇s economic structure dividend, maintaining economic growth, and adjusting the economic structure. Although China has entered the channel of structural deceleration, the domestic Wild Goose mode can extend the time for the Chinese economy to shift from high-speed growth to medium-speed growth. China should give full play to the great powers of the Wild Goose mode of a large country and fully consider regional characteristics of economic development and economic restructuring when making policy decisions to continue the structural bonus of the middle and western regions and to be on guard against the risk of structural imbalance in the east.