“特朗普现象”与美国政治变迁的逻辑及趋势

Trump Phenomenon and the Logic and Trend of the Evolution of U.S. Politics

2016年美国大选中的"特朗普现象"及其蕴含的政党政治重组趋势,预示着美国政治正在步入一个新周期。因此,准确把握上述现象与趋势形成的原因及其影响是理解特朗普时代美国政治的逻辑前提。本文认为,"特朗普现象"对美国政治的冲击体现为民主党传统的东北部政治联盟在此次大选中出现分裂,其中大湖区"铁锈地带"白人蓝领中下层成了共和党的支持者,该党势力范围因此扩展到东北部,构建起了一个由南部、中西部和东北部"铁锈地带"组成的新政治联盟,进而推动形成了美国政治新一轮政党重组趋势。这就意味着,肇始于20世纪80年代"里根革命"的新镀金时代正在终结,共和、民主两党"对等极化"政治格局下并行不悖的经济社会发展路径——新自由主义与多元主义——正被本土主义取代,步入新周期的美国政治将更有可能回到古典自由主义发展路径,其核心特征是在摒弃新自由主义经济金融化、全球化理念与多元主义"政治正确"理念基础上的再工业化、自由放任式经济政策及文化保守主义。

Trump phenomenon and the trend of a new round of partisan realignment that was reflected in the 2016 presidential election, indicate that the U.S. politics is entering into a new era. This article argues that the possibility of this new round of partisan realignment could be clearly seen in the split of Democrats＇ traditional Northeast coalition, in which the so-called Rustbeh around the Great Lakes that mainly consists of white working class people, turned to the Republican Party in this election. This new trend means the end of the new gilded age that was started by the Reagan Revolution in the 1980s. In the new era, nativism may replace neoliberalism and pluralism, and the classic liberalism may again dominate U.S. polities, making it featured by reindustrialization, laisser-faire and WASP elitism.