中国排污权交易政策与企业就业效应——基于微观企业数据的分析

Emission Trading Policy in China and Employment Effect——Research based on Micro Enterprises Data

考察一项环境政策效果如何,除要考量其直接的环境效应外,还须适当考量其经济效应与就业效应。渐进式的排污权交易机制已逐渐成为中国当前应对节能减排问题的重要手段,但其对就业的影响却未得到重视。我国二氧化硫排污权交易试点政策对就业的净影响效果,可用双重差分模型结合我国2005-2012年持续经营的企业数据分析得出。研究表明,该项排污权交易政策能够显著降低高排硫企业及高污染企业的就业规模。采用PSM-DID等方法进行稳健性检验的结果与双重差分模型相一致,说明中国此项排污权交易政策尚未实现环境和民生的双重红利。因此,应健全和优化排污权交易机制的相关制度安排,构建一套系统的评估体系,定期评估排污权交易制度实施的环境效应、经济效应和就业效应,完善排污权交易制度。

In order to evaluate the effect of an environmental policy, we should consider its economic effect and employment effect in addition to its direct environmental effects. Progressive emissions trading mech-anism has gradually become the important means to cope with the problem of energy conservation and emissions reduction in China, but the effect of emissions trading mechanism on employment is not attached great impor-tance. Using the DID model to overcome endogenous problem in the process of regression, this paper analyzes the net effects of decreasing emission of the trading policy in 2007 of the emission rights of S02 on firm^ em-ployment using a sample of Chinese industrial firms over the period 2005 -2012. The research finds that the trading policy of emission rights can significantly reduce employment levels in the high sulfur discharge and high pollution industry enterprises. Then the PSM - DID method and placebo are used to conduct a robust test, the results are identical with the result made before. Trading policy of emission rights does not achieve double dividend for mitigation and employment in China. The policy enlightenment is to perfect and optimize the rele-vant institutional arrangements of emission trading mechanism, and build a systematic evaluation system, eval-uating the environmental effects, economic effects and employment effects of emissions trading system regular-ly, to improve the emission trading system.