气候转折期前后无锡站年际旱涝周期水文特性的对比分析

Hydrological Characteristics of Interannual Drought and Flood Cycle at Wuxi Station before and after Climatic Transition Period

在人类影响不断加剧的大背景下,通过对气候转折期前后无锡站年际降雨序列水文特性的对比分析,探索旱涝周期演化的自然规律。研究表明,无锡站年际降雨过程线的外观和内在特征,在1978年前后发生了突变,证实了笔者"气候成因不同特征不同"的猜想,也是气候转折期存在的有力证据;无锡站年际旱涝周期性特征是水文自然演化规律的一部分,其时间序列的一致性,并未因人类活动的影响而改变;分段法的提出打破了旱涝无规律的传统思维定势,国家气候中心对气候转折期的研究成果是其存在的理论基础;本次研究解决了无锡站年际旱涝周期性分析的难题,首次实现了旱涝趋势预测模拟,可推进太湖地区中长期水文预报和气候预测研究。

This paper studied the natural law of the drought and flood cycle by comparatively analyzing the hydrological characteristics of inter - annual rainfall series at the Wuxi Station before and after the climate transition period. The results show that the interannual rainfall process of the Wuxi Station indicates a mutation before and after 1978,which confirms the existence of the climate transition period. The interannual drought and flood periodicity of the Wuxi Station is a part of the natural evolution law of hydrology,of which the consistency of the time series is not changing due to the influence of human activity. The proposed segmentation method breaks the traditional thinking of drought and flood irregular. This study solved the interannual periodicity of drought analysis problem of the Wuxi Station,realized simulation forecast of the drought and flood trend which is a help for mid- and long-term hydrological forecasting and climate prediction in the Taihu Lake area.