贵州山区降水集中度和降水集中期的时空变化特征

Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Precipitation Concentration Degree and Precipitation Concentration Period in Guizhou Mountain Area

利用1961~2015年贵州省81个气象观测站的逐日降雨资料,计算了降水集中度(PCD)和集中期(PCP),并采用线性趋势、空间分析、M-K突变检验和R/S分析等方法 ,对贵州山区复杂地形下的降水集中度和降水集中期进行了分析。结果表明:贵州1961~2015年PCD波动幅度介于0.30~0.59之间,空间分布上由东向西逐渐增加的趋势,PCP的波动范围在16.5~21.0旬之间,空间呈现出由东南向西北逐渐增加的趋势;PCD与降水量的相关性高于PCP与降水量的相关性,表明贵州地区的降水量越多,降水越趋于集中;R/S分析表明贵州地区PCD可能隐含着周期规律,PCP会保持提前的趋势。

Based on the daily precipitation data from the 81 stations in Guizhou Province during 1961-2015, this paper analyzed the precipitation concentration degree （PCD） and concentration period （PCP） of Guizhou mountain complex terrain by using the methods of the linear trend, spatial analysis, Mann Kendall trend test and R/S analysis. The results show that, during 1961-2015, the PCD in the Guizhou ranged from 0.30 to 0.59, gradually increased from east to west in the spatial distribution, and the PCP ranged from16.5 to 21.0 periods of ten days, the spatial distribution from the southeast to the northwest gradually increased. The correlation between PCD and precipitation is higher than that between PCP and precipitation, which indicates that the more precipitation in Guizhou Province, the more PCD tends to be concentrated. R/S results show that the PCD in Guizhou Province may be periodic, and the PCP will keep ahead of the tendency.