城市化背景下穿越城市公路交通预测方法研究

Study on the Traffic Demand Forecast about Highway through Cities under the Background of Urbanization

伴随着城市化进程的推进,城市不断扩张,公路与城市的关系由绕行式转变为穿越式,公路不仅承担城市对外交通及过境交通的需求,还需承担城市内部交通需求。传统的公路交通预测方法仅预测城市对外及过境交通需求,不能准确反映穿越式公路的交通需求,且传统公路交通预测方法不能准确预测穿越式公路沿线交叉口的转向量。文章在分析穿越式公路交通量构成的基础上,提出了传统公路交通需求预测与城市内部交通需求预测相结合的方法,在城市对外及过境交通预测的基础上叠加城市内部交通量,准确预测穿越式公路路段交通量以及沿线交叉口的转向量,实践证明该方法具有科学性和可行性。

With the urbanization process,the city constantly expands,and the relationship between highway and citychanges from bypass type to through type. The highway not only undertakes the city external traffic and the transit trafficneeds,but also the city internal traffic needs. The traditional traffic forecast method of highway only forecasts the cityexternal traffic needs and the transit traffic needs,can not accurately reflect the traffic demand of the crossing road. Thispaper analysed the traffic volume constitute of the highway through the city firstly,then proposed a method combiningthe traditional highway traffic needs forecast method with the city internal traffic needs forecast method,superimposedthe traffic volume of the city on the basis of the forecast of the city忆s external and transit traffic,accurated forecasts thesection traffic volume and steering volume of intersections by this method,the practice proved that the method isscientific and feasible.