基于CLUE-S和InVEST模型的五马河流域生态系统服务多情景评估

Multi-Scenario Ecosystem Service Assessment of Wuma River Valley Based on CLUE-S and InVEST Models

开展生态系统服务量化评估是科学进行生态系统管理的前提,对保障区域可持续发展和人类福祉意义重大。基于生态系统服务和交易的综合评估模型(In VEST),耦合小区域土地利用转换及其效应模型(CLUE-S),对五马河流域当前土地覆盖条件下及2030年2种土地覆盖情景[经济发展情景(SED)和生态保护情景(SEP)]下的产水、营养物质输移和沉积物持留3项生态系统服务进行量化评估。结果表明,当前流域的总产水量、总氮输出量、总磷输出量、沉积物持留量分别约为2.7×108m3、630 t、142 t和2×108t。经济发展情景下2030年流域上述3项生态系统服务的物质量相对于当前变化均不明显。生态保护情景下2030年流域总产水量相对于当前将减少约600×104m3,总氮和总磷输出量分别减少约34.8%和35.4%,沉积物持留量增加约0.7×106t。总体而言,五马河流域上述3项生态系统服务与土地覆盖状况密切相关,生态保护情景下2030年上述3项生态系统服务功能较当前将有明显提高。

Quantitative assessment of ecosystem services is a precondition for scientific management of ecosystems, and hence of great significance to guaranteeing sustainable development and human well-being of a region. So, based on the In-tegrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model （ InVEST） and the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Region Extent model （CLUE-S）, quantitative assessment of the three ecosystem services of the Wuma River Val-ley, i.e. water yield, nutrient translocation and sediment retention, under the present land cover and that in 2030, encom-passing two scenarios, that is, scenario of economic development（SED） and scenario of ecological protection（SEP）. Re-sults show that at present, the total water yield, the total outputs of nitrogen and phosphorus, and the total sediment re-tained of the Wuma River Valley is about 2.7 x 108 m3, 630 t , 142 t and 2 x 108 t , respectively, and will remain almost unchanged in the SED of 2030, but about 600 X 104 m3, 34.8% and 35.4%,and 0. 7 X 106 t higher, respectively, in the SEP of 2030. Generally speaking, the three kinds of ecosystem services of the Wuma River Valley are closely related to land cover, and will significantly be improved in the SEP of 2030. This study may serve as reference for further efforts onevaluation of ecosystem services and formulation of development plans for the Wuma River Valley.