流动人口对大城市经济增长和财政收入贡献研究——基于宁波市数据的测算

Study on Migrant Population's Contribution on Economic Increase and Financial Income of Big Cities——Based on Statistic Evaluation of Ningbo

进入21世纪,伴随着经济增长和城市化进程的推进,我国出现了一大批快速发展的新兴大城市,大量流动人口涌入并参与到流入地的经济社会发展中,对流入地城市经济增长、财政收入增加做出了不可忽视的重要贡献。根据宁波市第二、三次产业和行业数据,理清流动人口对新兴大城市经济增长的作用路径,构建柯布—道格拉斯型生产函数模型,并引入宏观税负变量,估算流动人口对城市经济和财政收入的贡献份额。通过分析,流动人口就业于不同行业对城市经济发展的作用方式不同,因此将宁波市流动人口就业结构及产业结构优化的经验传递到其他区域发展的大城市,从而优化调整城市产业结构,控制流动人口规模,留住优秀人才,合理规划流动人口在各行业的分布,最终共享流动人口在区域协同发展的成果。

With the development of urbanization and economic growth after the 21st century, a lot of fast-growing emerging metropolis sprang up. Therefore, numbers of migrant population crowed and participated in the big cities＇ economic society development, which contributed a lot to the development of increasing fnancial income and economic growth. According to secondary and tertiary industries＇ statistics, function paths of migrant population helping big cities increase economic growth is clarifed, C-D production function model is established, macro tax variables are introduced and migrant population＇s contribution proportion in fnancial income of big cities can be calculated. After the analysis, different cities＇ migrant population are discovered to have different function methods in promoting local economic development. Hence we can use the experience of Ningbo＇s migrant population＇s employment structure and industrial structure optimization and pass it to other regional big cities to optimize their industrial structure, control population scales and keep excellent persons, regulate the spread of migrant population in all industries and ultimately share the fruits of regional collaborative development contributed by migrant population.