辽宁中西部气候干旱周期及降水满足程度研究

Research on Climatic Drought Cycle and Precipitation Satisfaction Degree of Liaoning Midwest Area

采用沈阳、锦州、阜新、葫芦岛、朝阳、赤峰等市18个气象站1960-2015年气候资料,运用气候倾向率、干湿指数和积分湿润指数等气候诊断分析方法,研究4~9月气候干旱变化及降水的农业满足度。结果表明,辽宁中西部地区农作物生长季干湿指数逐年减小,气候干旱化明显。中南部平原沿海区近20年(1996-2015年)气候干旱化程度增加12.5%,西北部低山丘陵区气候干旱化程度增加11.7%。辽宁中西部地区中、重度干旱年存在9~11年的准周期。降水的农业满足程度整体下降,线性下降14.3%;近20年降水的农业满足程度平均下降13.4%,干旱气候年增加7.3%~9.1%。辽宁中西部地区降水减少导致农业需水满足度下降,干旱频率增加,对大田农业生产已构成威胁。因此,应加强水资源管理和应用,提高水资源利用率和保护,适应气候变化调整农业生产结构,以防御干旱灾害所带来的损失。

Adopting the 1960-2015 climatic data from 18 meteorological bureaus of Shenyang,Jinzhou,Fuxin,Hulu Island,Chaoyang,Chifeng cities and the climate diagnostic analysis with the indexes of climate tendency rate,aridity index and integral humidity index,both climate change and precipitation of agricultural satisfaction from April to September were researched.The results showed that the aridity index of crop growing season in central and western in Liaoning province had decreased year by year and the climate turn to be drought obviously.The climate drought degree of central and southern coastal plain（1996-2015） had increased 12.5% in recent 20 a.The climate drought degree of hilly region of northwest area had increased 11.7%.In the midwest area of Liaoning the moderate and severe drought years had quasi-period last for 9 ~11 a.The general agricultural satisfaction had overall decline and linear descent for 14.3%.In recent 20 a,the agricultural satisfaction of precipitation had average decline for 13.4% which increased 7.3%~9.1% arid climate year.The precipitation decrease of midwest area of Liaoning leads to the agricultural water demand satisfaction decline d and increased the drought frequency,which had been a threat to agricultural production.Therefore,the water resource management and application,water resource availability and protection needed to enhance,which could adjust the agricultural structure due to the climate change and prevent the drought loss.