储蓄率、金融市场发展对M_2/GDP的影响——基于国别面板数据的实证研究

Influence of Saving Rate and Financial Market Development on M_2/GDP——An Empirical Study Based on Nationality Panel Data

基于多国面板数据,运用国别固定效应模型,实证研究储蓄率和金融市场发展程度对M_2/GDP的影响机制,可为横向解释不同经济体M_2/GDP的差异提供一个分析框架。研究表明,储蓄率对M_2/GDP的影响因金融市场发展程度的不同而异,金融市场发展程度越高,储蓄率对M_2/GDP的正向影响越小;特别地,对于金融市场高度成熟的国家,储蓄率可对M_2/GDP具有负向影响。此外,金融市场发展对M_2/GDP具有正向影响,影响程度因储蓄率的不同而异,储蓄率越高,金融市场发展对M_2/GDP的正向影响越小。长期居高不下的储蓄率水平,以及不断发展但尚不成熟的金融市场,是导致中国M_2/GDP持续高位运行的重要原因。

Based on the nationality panel data from 39 nations,the influencing mechanism of saving rate and financial market development on M2/GDP ratio was studied empirically employing the fixed effect model in this paper,which provides an analytical framework for explaining the differences of M2/GDP ratios of different countries. The results show that saving rate has a positive effect on the determinant of M2/GDP ratio; however,this positive effect can be weakened by the development of financial market. In particular,in a country with highly sophisticated financial market,the saving rate could have a negative effect on M2/GDP ratio. In addition,the development of financial market also has a positive effect on the determinant of M2/GDP ratio,which varies with different saving rates: the higher saving rate is,the weaker the positive influence is. Based on the conclusions,it is pointed out that the high saving rate and the immature financial market are the two main contributors to China's high M2/GDP ratio,and policy recommendations are put forward accordingly.