专业化经济、多样化经济与出口贸易增长——基于中国地级以上城市面板数据的实证检验

Specialized Economy,Diversified Economy and Export Trade Growth——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of Cities at and above Prefecture Level in China

文章基于1999~2012年中国287个地级以上城市的面板数据的实证结果表明:专业化经济能显著促进中、小型城市出口贸易的增长,但对大型和特大型城市出口贸易的推动作用不明显或为负向效应;多样化经济对中、小型城市出口贸易增长有着显著的负面效应,而对大型城市有显著的正面效应,但对特大型城市出口贸易的正向影响逐渐降低甚至为负,且在中西部地区表现得更为明显;专业化经济和多样化经济对出口贸易倒"U"型作用的拐点所对应的城市规模分别为225万~230万和463万~558万的人口水平。上述聚集经济与出口贸易的倒"U"型关系对中国城市产业和出口贸易发展战略的选择有着重要的指导意义。

For a city,clustering economy falls into two categories:specialized economy and diversified economy.It is indicated by the results of empirical analysis based on the panel data of287cities at and above the prefecture level in China for the period of 2009-2012that specialized economy significantly promotes the export trade growth in small and medium-sized cities,and that it plays an insignificant or negative role in promoting export trade in large cities and ultralarge cities,diversified economy has a remarkably negative effect on promoting export trade in small and medium-sized cities,and has a remarkable positive effect on promoting export trade in large cities,but the positive effect of diversified economy on the export trade goes down gradually and even becomes negative in ultra-large cities,a fact more obvious in Central and Western China.According to the research findings,the inflection points of upended U-like role of specialized economy and diversified economy in export trade correspond respectively to a city with a population of 2.25-2.30 million and a city with a population of 4.63-5.58million.The upended U-shape relationship between clustering economy and export trade plays an important guiding role in formulating strategies for industrial development and export trade development in urban China.