美国对外资产负债间收益率差对美国外部失衡调整的影响研究述评

Comment on the Study of Impacts that Yield Spread in US External Assets and Liabilities Had on US External Imbalance

20世纪80年代末期,美国从净债权国转变为净债务国,经常账户逆差不断累积,对外负债规模急剧扩大,逐步形成金融市场导向的债务依赖型经济体。美国净国际投资头寸虽然为负值,但却明显小于经常账户赤字累积值,保持相对平稳,还在对外投资中持续获得正收益。这主要源于美国对外资产收益率高于对外负债回报率,二者之间存在收益率差。按照本文计算方法,2003—2016年,美国年均对外收益率差为2.26%。收益率差还通过收益效应、组合效应、时间效应和估值效应等方式,有效调整了美国外部失衡状态,使美国对外负债具有一定可持续性。

In the late 1980s, the United States has changed from a net creditor country to a net debtor country. It performs as following： the accumulation of current account deficits, the rapid expansion of external liabilities, and the formation of a market-oriented and debt-dependent economy. The US net international investment position, although negative, remains relatively stable, significantly less than the current account deficits accumulation. And, the US con- tinues to keep a positive income balance. This is mainly due to the US return on assets is higher than the return on its lia- bilities. And there is a return differential between the two. According to this article＇s method, the average US yield spread is 2.26% from 2003 to 2016. In addition, yield spread effectively adjusts the US external imbalance through the return effect, composition effect, time effect and valuation effect, so as to make the U.S. external liabilities sustainable.