我国影子银行的系统性金融风险测度与防范研究--基于影子银行资产负债表的视角

Research on the Measurement and Prevention of Systematic Financial Risk of Shadow Bank in China——Based on the Perspective of Shadow Bank Balance Sheet

我国影子银行内生于银行和非银行金融机构之间,资产与负债相互交叉渗透,在会计账户之间形成风险传导,从而成为系统性风险发生和传染的重要渠道。本文创新性地构建了2010—2015年我国影子银行资产负债表,以会计账户风险传导为基础,分析了影子银行部门的风险生成机理,测度了影子银行风险程度,在此基础上厘清影子银行的系统性风险传导机制。做好影子银行的风险防范和治理,根本上要加强正规金融机构的有效监管,及时识别、管理与隔离影子银行风险,建立一套适度、完整、有效的影子银行审慎监管框架,构建包含影子银行的广义宏观审慎管理体系。

The shadow banking systems in developed countries are relatively independent with non-bank financial institutions as their main bodies. Different from them, China＇s shadow banks are mainly born between banks and non- bank financial institutions, whose assets and liabilities cross with each other. Risks can be easily transmitted through ac- counting account, which is the most important risk transmitting channel of shadow banking risk in financial system. This paper constructs the balance sheet of China＇s shadow bank in 2010--2015, analyzes the risk generation mecha- nism and measures the risk level of shadow banks. On this basis, this paper clarifies the risk infection mechanism in shadow banking system. The study suggests that, in order to well prevent and control the risk, it is necessary to strengthen the effective supervision over formal financial institutions, to identify, manage and isolate the shadow bank risk in a timely way, to establish a reasonable, complete and effective shadow banking prudential regulatory framework and to further construct a generalized macro prudential management system.