我国居民金融需求层级结构门限效应研究

The Study on Threshold Effect of Resident's Hierarchy of Financial Demand in China

居民金融需求表现为两个层次:交易性需求和保值增值需求。一般而言,只有当交易性需求被全部或部分满足后,保值增值需求才会产生。与此同时,不同居民金融需求层级结构呈现出显著的异质性特征和结构化差异。运用横截面门限回归分析法,结合我国居民家庭调查数据进行的研究结果显示,以家庭收入结构和家庭金融资产总值作为门限变量,居民金融需求层级结构具有显著的门限效应。以交易性需求作为被解释变量,家庭工资性收入占比的门限值大约为73%,超过门限后收入结构对于交易性需求的影响程度要显著高于门限前;金融资产门限值大约为12.10万,影响情况与收入结构刚好相反。将保值增值需求作为被解释变量,收入结构与金融资产总值的门限值大约为75%和22.15万,对保值增值需求的影响与对交易性需求的影响过程刚好相反。通过分析相关影响机制进一步发现,居民收入结构与金融资产总值通过金融教育和风险态度两条路径对居民金融需求层级结构的提升产生显著影响。将门限变量估计从单变量估计扩展到多变量估计后的结果依然相同,证明本文研究结论的稳健性。研究获得的启示在于,对于不同收入结构与不同金融资产水平的居民,通过金融服务差异化供给,优化和提升其金融需求层级结构,进一步提升居民金融福祉。

There are two aspects of resident financial demand： transactional demand and demand for maintenance and appreciation. Generally speaking, the demand for maintenance anti appreciation will arise only the transactional demand be totally or partly fulfilled. Meanwhile, financial demand among different residents presents significant characteristic of heterogeneity and structural difference, By using the method of cross- section threshold regression analysis, it is indicated that there is significant threshold effect in the hierarchy of financial demand with the threshold variables of household income structure and size of financial assets fTom survey data of household in China. With the transaction demand as the dependent variable, the wage percent in household has the threshold value of 73% approximately, while the effect from income structure on the transaction demand after the point is significantly higher than that before the point ; the size of financial assets has the threshold value of 121 thousand Yuan approximately, with the opposite influence condition against income structure. With the value maintenance and appreciation demand as the dependent variable, the threshold value of income structure and size of financial assets are 75% and 221.5 thousand Yuan approximately,both variables affecting the value maintenance and appreciation demand just contrary to the transaction demand. By analysis of influence mechanism, it is found that both income structure and size of financial assets significantly affect promotion of hierarchy of financial demand by path of financial education and risk attitude. With the threshold expansion from single variable to multiple variables, the results above are still valid, which proves the robustness of conclusions. The inspiration from the study is that financial service supply differentiation for residents with different income structure and size of financial assets could optimize and enhance the hierarchy of financial demand in order to promote financial well-being.