基于主成分回归分析的煤炭行业政策效果评价分析

Evaluation and Analysis of Coal Industry Policy Effectiveness Based on Principal Component Regression Analysis

运用政策量化方法对煤炭行业分类政策进行量化,利用主成分回归分析法从经济效益、安全效益、生态环境效益和社会效益四个层面对1991~2016年煤炭行业政策效果进行评价分析。结果表明:(1)煤炭行业政策均会对经济效益、安全效益、生态环境效益和社会效益产生相应正向或负向影响;(2)发展规划和税收政策对煤炭行业经济效益负向影响较大,价格和税收政策对安全效益和生态环境效益影响最大,节能减排和发展规划政策对社会效益影响较大;(3)价格和税收政策为主导影响政策,发展规划和节能减排政策对煤炭行业影响程度呈不断加大趋势。建议从提升节能减排资金补贴、加快兼并重组步伐、完善煤价调控政策等方面完善现有煤炭行业政策体系。

This paper uses the policy quantification method to quantify the classification policy of coal industry, and uses the principal component regression analysis to evaluate the effect of coal industry policy of 1991-2016 from four aspects：economic benefit,safety benefit, ecological environment benefit and social benefit. The results show that： （1）the coal industry policies play corresponding positive or negative effects on economic benefits, safety benefits, ecological and environmental benefits and social benefits; （2）The development plan and tax policies have a great negative influence on the economic benefits of the coal industry. The price and tax policies have the greatest impact on the safety benefits and the ecological and environmental benefits. The energy-saving and emission reduction and development planning policies have a greater impact on the social benefits. （3）price and tax policies are the leading impact of policy. The impact of development planning and energy-saving and emission reduction policies on the coal industry was increasing. It is suggested to improve the existing coal industry policy system from the aspects of upgrading subsidies for energy conservation and emission reduction, speeding up the pace of merger and reorganization,perfecting coal price control policies and so on.