“一带一路”倡议背景下中国对中亚农产品进口三元边际及影响因素

Three Margins of China's Agricultural Import to Central Asia under the Background of“Belt& Road”Initiative and Its Impacting Factors

借鉴Hummels&Klenow(胡梅尔斯和克莱诺,2005)的三元边际分解框架,采用2003年~2015年国际贸易数据,考察"一带一路"倡议背景下中国进口中亚农产品三元边际的特征事实和影响因素。从总体特征来看,拓展边际是中国对中亚进口增长的主要方式,价格边际贡献次之,数量边际反而有所下降。从动态分布演进来看,中国从中亚国家进口农产品的拓展边际有所提高,但国家间差距呈波浪上升状;价格边际从趋同到趋异,差异不断扩大;数量边际平稳与剧烈并存,变动趋势不一。从影响因素来看,特征变量对三元边际作用方向和作用强度不尽相同,中国和中亚需要根据各变量作用机制在科技、金融、信息、自贸区建设以及政策协调等领域深化合作。

According to the three margins decomposition method of Hummels and Klenow （2005）, using the international trade data in 2003-2015, this paper describes the stylized facts of the three margins of China＇s agricultural products imports from Central Asia under Belt and Road Initiative and the impacting factors. From the overall characteristics, extensive margin is the main way of growth, the contribution of price margin is the secondary, but quantity margin decreases. China＇s extensive margin in Central Asian countries has been improved, but the gap between countries also rises in a wave; the price margin im- proves from convergence to divergence, and the difference is growing; the quantity margin of smooth fluctuation and violent fluctuation coexist, and the changing trend vary. From the influence factors, the characteristic variable have different direction and strength of action for three margins, China and Central Asia need to deepen cooperation in the areas of science, technol- ogy, finance, information,Free Trade Zone construction and policy coordination, according to the mechanism of each variable.