电梯故障率预测模型及其应用

Research on model for elevator failure rate prediction and its application

为提高电梯现场安全管理水平,降低电梯故障率,建立电梯故障率受温度、湿度影响的GM(1,N)预测模型,研究环境温度、湿度对电梯故障率的影响;对所建模型进行校验,得到残差序列,利用残差序列建立修正模型并对原预测模型进行修正;利用修正后的预测模型对某品牌电梯故障率进行预测。结果表明:湿度相较于温度对电梯故障率的影响更大;修正后的预测模型其预测结果与实际情况符合较好,能够用于该品牌电梯故障率的预测;根据模型预测值可知该品牌电梯的故障率呈现上升趋势,应加强其检维修与管理工作。

In order to improve the safety management level of elevator field,reduce the failure rate of elevator and ensure the safety of elevator operation,a GM（ 1,N） prediction model of elevator failure rate affected by temperature and humidity was built. Influences of environmental temperature and humidity on the failure rate of elevator was studied. The prediction model was verified and the residual sequence was obtained. A residual correction model was built based on the residual sequence to modify the prediction model. The failure rate of a certain brand of elevator was predicted by the modified model. The results show that prediction by using the modified model conforms with the reality closely,that the effect of humidity on the failure rate is more significant than that of temperate,that the brand of elevator fault rate has a rising trend,and the inspection,maintenance and management of the brand elevator should be strengthen.