北京农村能源消费现状及影响因素分析——基于北京市1866个农村住户的调研

ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN RURAL BEIJING:CURRENT SITUATION AND MAJOR INFLUENCE FACTORS——BASED ON THE SURVEY OF 1866 RURAL HOUSE HOLDS IN BEIJING

[目的]文章通过对北京市农村住户的能源消费调查和数据分析,研究北京农村能源消费的总体现状、不同地形、不同区之间的消费差异以及主要能源消费的影响因素。[方法]运用描述性分析和多元回归,基于北京市13个区214个村庄1 866住户的调查数据,重点分析北京农村能源消费情况以及煤炭、电和薪柴3种主要能源消费量的影响因素。[结果]从能源普及率来看,北京农村能源以电、煤炭和液化气为主;从消费量比重来看,以煤炭(60.4%)、薪柴(17.9%)、电(12.9%)为主,太阳能和沼气清洁能源比重较低,煤炭几乎全部用于家庭取暖;平原区和近郊区的电、煤炭、天然气消费量都明显高于其他地区,薪柴低于其他地区,太阳能和液化气消费量的地区差别不大。地形特征和家庭常住人口对各种能源消费量影响都很大,家庭收入主要影响电(正向)和薪柴消费量(反向),对煤炭消费量影响不明显,峰谷电价对电消费量影响较大,采暖面积对煤炭和电有影响,对薪柴消费没有影响;是否节能改造和对雾霾认识对能源消费量影响不确定。[结论]采取科学分类指导及措施,改变农村冬季采暖方式,改造常规能源,加大对新能源、可再生能源的开发与利用,加大农村经济发展和能源改造政策支持,以促进北京农村能源利用的优化升级。

Based on the survey of energy consumption of village households in Beijing, this paper studied the status of Beijing rural energy consumption, and consumption differences in various areas and its driven factors. Using descriptive analysis and multiple regression method, based on the survey data of 1 866 households in 214 villages in 13 district of Beijing, it focused on three main energy as well as coal, electricity and fuel wood consumption and its influence factors. The results showed that the main energy were electricity, coal and liquefied from user penetration rate, the consumption structure was coal （60.2%）, firewood （17.9%）, electricity （12.9%）, and other liquefied gas, solar and biogas. Coal was mainly used for winter heating. Electricity, coal and natural gas consumption in plain areas and suburban districts households were significantly higher than other regions, firewood was lower than that in other regions. Total energy consumption was influenced by topographical features and family residents. Household income positively affected electricity and negatively affected firewood consumption. The impact on energy consumption was uncertainty whether or not taking energy saving measures. There were several methods to promote the upgrading of rural energy use in Beijing, such as taking management actions varying from energy classification, changing the rural way of heating in winter, the transformation of conventional energy, increasing new energy and renewable energy development and utilization, accelerating the development of the rural economy, and so on.