基于多元线性回归模型的滦河流域径流量变化驱动因子分析

Multivariable linear regression model-based analysis on driving factors of runoff variation in Luanhe River Basin

基于滦河流域中上游以山区地形为主,地势变化剧烈,地貌及土地利用类型多样,生态环境复杂的背景,为研究不同土地利用类型对流域径流量变化的影响,基于多元线性回归模型,分析了流域内不同子流域土地利用类型和降水量变化对各子流域径流量变化的影响。结果显示,处于下游的瀑河和柳河流域径流量受到耕地的影响较为显著,而滦河流域中上游各子流域径流量变化则主要受到草地、水域和林地面积变化的影响。因此,不同子流域降水量与各土地利用类型对流域内径流量变化的驱动性存在较大差异,在进行水利工程规划设计时需进行单独的讨论与分析。

Based on the background of the mid-upstream basin of Luanhe River that mainly consists of mountainous topography,rapidly-varied terrain,multi-type of land utilization and physiognomy and complicated eco-environment,the impacts from the land utilization types and the variations of the precipitations in various sub-basins in the river basin on the runoff variations of all the sub-basins are analyzed on the basis of the multivariable linear regression model for studying the impacts from land utilization types on the runoff variation of the river basin. The result shows that the impacts on the runoffs of Baohe and Liuhe River Sub-basins located on the downstream of Luanhe River are quite significant,while the runoff variations of all the sub-basins along the mid-upstream basin of Luanhe River are mainly impacted by the area variations of the grass-lands,water areas and forest lands therein. Therefore,there are larger differences among the drivings from the precipitations and all the land utilization types in the different sub-basins on the runoff variation of the river basin,which must be individually discussed and analyzed during the planning and design of the water conservancy project concerned.