基于迭代回归树模型的跨平台长尾商品购买行为预测

Connecting Social Media to E-Commerce:Predicting Long-tail Purchase Behaviors using Multiple Additive Regression Tree

长尾商品是指单种商品销量较低,但是由于种类繁多,形成的累计销售总量较大,能够增加企业盈利空间的商品。在电子商务网站中,用户信息量较少且购买长尾商品数量较少、数据稀疏,因此对用户购买长尾商品的行为预测具有一定的挑战性。该文提出预测用户购买长尾商品的比例,研究单一用户购买长尾商品的整体偏好程度。利用社交媒体网站上海量的文本信息和丰富的用户个人信息,提取用户的个人属性、文本语义、关注关系、活跃时间等多个种类的特征;采用改进的迭代回归树模型MART(Multiple Additive Regression Tree),对用户购买长尾商品的行为进行预测分析;分别选取京东商城和新浪微博作为电子商务网站和社交媒体网站,使用真实数据构建回归预测实验,得到了一些有意义的发现。该文从社交媒体网站抽取用户特征,对于预测用户购买长尾商品的行为给出一个新颖的思路,可以更好地理解用户个性化需求,挖掘长尾市场潜在的经济价值,改进电子商务网站的服务。

Long-tail products,with low demands,occupy a significant share of total revenue in total.It is challenging to analyze the long-tail purchase behaviors due to the data sparsity resulted from few purchase behaviors.This paper proposes to leverage online social media information for predicting the long-tail purchase behaviors.In specific,we collect the user profiles form the social media information,including the status text,following links and temporal activity distributions,and predict their purchases by a weighted Multiple Additive Regression Trees（MART）.Experimented on the data from JingDong and SinaWeibo,the effectiveness of the proposed method are revealed,together with several interesting findings.