基于多标度的矿井突水风险等级模糊综合评价

Research on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of mine water bursting risk grade based on multi-scale

矿井突水是仅次于瓦斯突出的严重事故,是困扰煤矿生产和建设的突出问题.以事故致因理论和安全人-机-环境理论分析并构建了矿井突水风险评价指标体系,采用基于九标度的模糊层次分析法(FAHP)针对评价指标建立模糊判断矩阵、构建模糊一致矩阵并求取各指标的权重与综合权重,结合模糊综合评价法(FCE)进行了该评价指标体系的两级模糊综合评价.实例应用结果表明,基于多标度的矿井突水风险模糊综合评价模型能够对矿井突水风险进行数据挖掘,该评价结果可以为矿井突水防治提供理论参考和依据,亦可以为矿井其他类似的风险评价提供借鉴.

Mine water bursting is the only serious accident after gas outburst,and the water bursting has been a prominent problemwhich has been plagued the production and construction of coal mine. Based on the theory of accident causing theory and safety of manmachineenvironment theory analysis,the mine water bursting risk evaluation index system is analyzed. Fuzzy AHP （ FAHP）based onnine scale is used to establish the fuzzy judgment matrix for the index of evaluation index system,fuzzy uniform matrix and the weightand comprehensive weight of each index. It was combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method （ FCE）for the two grade fuzzycomprehensive evaluation of the evaluation index system,the results show that：the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation which was based onrisk multi scale model of water bursting could dig out potential threats of mine water bursting risk,according to the evaluation results,it could provide a theoretical reference and the basis for the prevention of water bursting from coal mine,it could also provide methodological reference for other similar coal mine risk evaluation.