摘要
针对重大传染病疫情发生时跨区域协同应急需求,构建应急物资跨区域协同调配的系统动力学模型。基于传染病、物资调配和反馈机制三个子系统,分析关键因素及其因果关联,设计数据流图,并按不同受灾程度将各区域划分为轻度、中度和重度灾区,枚举可能的跨区域应急协同调配方案。以长三角联防联控甲型H1N1流感疫情为例,设置相关参数方程,对所构模型检测现实性和稳定性,且分别对关键参数影响、差异化区域特征和跨区域应急协同方案选择实施仿真分析,研究结果为科学构建跨区域应急协同体系提供有益参考。
Considering the urgent demand of cross--regional emergency coordination under severe epidemics, a system dy- namics (SD) model of emergency materials coordination in cross--region is constructed. By classifying into three sub-- systems, i.e. the epidemics system, materials allocation system and feedback system, the causal analysis of key factors is carried out, which is then applied to flow diagram in the SD model. Based on the mildly, moderately and severely disaster --affected areas, all possible plans for cross--regional coordinative allocation of emergency materials are presented. By setting the 2009 H1N1 joint response in the Yangtze River Delta as our case, a simulation analysis is performed to verify the model and demonstrate the effect of key parameters, the differentiated characteristics in disaster--affected areas, as well as the diverse emergency coordination choices. Suggestions are also provided for establishing an effective cross--re- gional emergency system.
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第6期105-112,共8页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71571103)
国家留学基金资助项目(201709040001)
江苏高校品牌专业建设工程资助项目
江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目
关键词
应急
跨区域
协同
疫情
系统动力学
emergency
cross--regions coordination
epidemics
system dynamics