大国关系变动下东盟国家的战略选择——基于20世纪60年代末以来历史演变的分析

ASEAN's Strategic Choices Under the Variations of Relations Among Great Powers:Analysis Based on Historical Evolution Since the End of 1960S

分析20世纪60年代以来大国关系变动对东盟主要国家外交选择的影响,认为:东盟主要国家对外战略选择经历了"一边倒",到有限调整,再到"大国平衡"的演变;东盟主要国家战略选择的依据或曰逻辑有促进经济发展和区域合作、通过内部制衡和外部制衡方式等以及防范意识形态威胁,维护政权安全。最后对东盟国家如何处理与崛起大国中国和霸权国家美国的关系进行了分析。

This essay analyzes the influences of variations among great powers on ASEAN＇s diplomatic choices since 1960s, and deems that the choices experienced from ＂ one-sided＂ to limited adjustment till to the balance of powers. The logic or basis of ASEAN＇s strategic choices includes the aims to promote economic development and regional cooperation, safeguarding its safety and sovereignty through internal and external balance, prevention of the ideological threat and maintain its political security. How ASEAN leaders deal with the relations between China the rising power and the United States the superpower will test their wisdom.