摘要
美元流动机制是牙买加国际金融体系运作的基础。在该机制作用下,美元指数呈现长度约为10年的贬值周期和长度约为6年的升值周期交替的现象。当前,美元加息周期已经启动,但美元指数走势却出现了"应然"与"实然"的悖论。这是因为本轮美元指数不存在持续上行基础。综合判断,未来一年美元指数在不超过115上限的箱体内震荡的可能性更大,短期下行压力较大。为规避美元加息风险,中国应加快推进中美自贸区(FTA)建设,通过市场融合实现互利共赢;推进"一带一路"建设,夯实经济发展基础;营造良好稳定发展环境;夯实国家安全的基础;合理多元化配置外汇储备;夯实实体经济基础,灵活推进人民币国际化。
The dollar circulation mechanism is the basis for the operation of Jamaica international financial system. Under that mechanism, the dollar index shows a depreciation cycle of about 10 years and an alternative 6 years" appreciation cycle. At present, the dollar interest rate rising cycle has started. However,the trend of the dollar index has exhibited a paradox of "ought to be"and "reality". This is because the current dollar index does not have a basis for sustained rising.Comprehensive judgment shows that, in the next year, it is more likely for the dollar index to be within the box of 115 as the upper limit, under great short-term downward pressure. In order to avoid the dollar interest rate hike risk, China should promote Sino-US FTA(FTA) construction to achieve mutual benefit and win-win through market integration; promote the "Belt and Road" construction to strengthen the foundation for economic development; create a good and stable development environment; consolidate the foundation of national security; reasonably allocate diversification of foreign exchange reserves; enhance economic base of private sector,flexibly promote the internationalization of RMB.
出处
《全球化》
2017年第11期86-99,共14页
Globalization
