中国省际灰水足迹强度的空间收敛性研究

Study on spatial convergence of grey water footprint intensity on provincial scale in China

水环境质量差和水生态受损严重问题备受各界关注,分析各地区水污染排放强度是构建中国特色水安全保障体系、实施最严格水资源管理制度的前提.根据Hoekstra和Chapagain提出的污染物吸纳理论,测算了2001—2014年中国31个省级行政区的灰水足迹,借助于探索性空间数据分析(Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis,ESDA)方法探讨了各地区灰水足迹强度的空间自相关特征强度,建立空间计量收敛模型,在空间效应视角下验证灰水足迹强度存在绝对和条件β收敛.结果显示:(1)2001—2014年中国灰水足迹强度存在较强的空间正自相关性和空间分布不均衡性;(2)灰水足迹强度存在绝对β收敛,基于空间效应设定,存在一定的空间绝对β收敛、条件β收敛;(3)在空间滞后和误差模型下,人均用水量每下降1%,灰水足迹强度增长速度将分别下降0.002 5%和0.002 7%,水资源总量和对外开放程度均不显著负向影响灰水足迹强度的增长速度.

The poor water environment quality and water ecology damage problems have aroused great attention.The analysis of regional water pollution emissions intensity is the premise to implement the most stringent water management system and build water security system with Chinese characteristics.According to the theory of absorbing pollutants proposed by Hoekstra and Chapagain,the national 31 provinces grey water footprint from 2001 to 2014 is estimated,the spatial correlation of grey water footprint intensity is explored by using spatial autocorrelation analysis method,and by building the space measurement model of convergence,the existence of absolute and conditionalβconvergence of grey water footprint intensity is verified under the perspective of spatial effect.The results are as follows：（1）Different regions＇ grey water footprint intensity in China have strong spatial correlation and spatial imbalance distribution from 2001 to 2014.（2）Water footprint intensity exists absolute convergence,and in the spatial effect assumption that exists absolute convergence and conditional convergence.（3）Under spatial lag and error model,different regions＇ per capita water consumption reduced by 1%,the growth rate of grey water footprint intensity reduced by 0.002 5% and 0.002 7%,respectively.However,total water resources and the degree of economically opening are not significant and negative influence the growth rate of grey water footprint intensity.