政府债务与私人投资的关系研究——OECD国家与中国的比较

Research on the Relationship between Government Debt and Private Investment——A Comparison between OECD Countries and China

本文使用OECD国家2000—2015年间政府债务与私人投资的面板数据和中国1995—2015年间的时间序列数据,利用GMM回归和门限回归模型,对OECD国家和中国的政府债务与私人投资的线性和非线性关系进行了实证检验。实证结果显示:从线性关系角度来看,OECD国家政府债务对私人投资具有显著的挤出效应,而中国的政府债务对私人投资则呈现显著的挤进效应;从非线性关系角度来看,OECD国家和中国的政府债务与私人投资都表现出"倒U"型关系,且中国政府债务的门限值高于OECD国家。最后,本文通过比较OECD国家和中国的实证结果,得出对中国的政策启示。

Using the panel data of government debt ＆ private investment of OECD countries in 2000--2015 and the time series data of government debt ＆ private investment of China in 1995-2015, this paper adopts GMM regression and threshold regression models to test the linear and nonlinear relationship between government debt and private investment in OECD countries and China respectively. The empirical results show that： from the perspective of linear relationship, OECD government debt has a significant ＂crowding out effect＂ on private investment, but China＇s government debt has a significant ＂crowding in effect＂ on private investment. From the perspective of nonlinear relationship, both government debt and private investment have shown ＂inverted U＂ relationship in OECD countries and China, and the threshold of Chinese government debt is higher than that in OECD countries. Finally, we draw the policy implications for China by comparing the empirical results of OECD countries and China.