股票市场资源配置效率及其溢出效应

Resource Allocation Efficiency and Spillover Effect of Stock Market

基于全国31个省、直辖市和自治区1997~2013年的面板数据,采用空间计量模型分别对全国和中、东、西部地区股票市场的发展模式、资源配置效率和空间溢出效应进行了实证分析。结果表明:尽管东部和中部的股票市场呈现出俱乐部收敛,但全域性的β收敛趋势并不存在,并且股票市场仅仅体现了政府指导下的资源配置效率,未能充分发挥市场竞价条件下的基础性配置作用;进一步的分析发现东部和西部股票市场的发展分别促进和抑制了本地区经济的增长,但其空间溢出效应并不显著,而中部地区股票市场在促进邻域省份经济发展的同时,对本地区经济的贡献十分有限。其政策寓意在于:中西部地区应主动破冰资本流动壁垒,在"新三板"框架下重新审视和规划资本市场发展路径,发挥区域联动作用,共同推动新常态下产业结构调整和中国经济改革转型。

Based on spatial panel data of Chinese 31 province during 1997-2013,this paper intends to empirically analyze the pattern of stock market development,the efficiency of resource allocation and the spillover effect of stock market by using the spatial econometric models respectively.The results indicate that although the stock market of eastern and western China showing club convergence,the nationwideβconvergence does not exist.The stock market only reflects the allocation efficiency of resource under the guidance of government.The further analysis show that the stock market development of eastern and western region promote and hold-up economic development respectively,and its indirect effect is not significant.The stock markets in central China promotes the economic development of neighboring provinces while contributing a little to the development of local economy.The policy implication is that the central and western regions should break down the capital flow barriers actively,reconsider and reprogram the path of capital market development under the framework of NEEQ,give full play of regional interaction and promote industrial reconstruction and economic reform of China under new normal economic.