我国低碳经济发展效率的动态变化及碳减排潜力分析

The Efficiency of Low Carbon Economy and Potential Emissions Reduction in China

综合考虑低碳经济发展过程中促进GDP增长及控制CO2排放的双重目标,运用非期望产出的SBM-DEA模型对我国30个省份2000~2012年的低碳经济发展效率及碳减排潜力的动态变化进行了评估。结果表明,我国低碳经济发展效率于"十二五"初期止住下降趋势开始回升。其中,经济最为发达的东部省份都属于高效率地区,而大部分西部省份,以及中部除湖南、江西外的地区都是低效率。在最优效率水平下,全国存在明显的CO2减排空间,低碳发展效率水平相对较低的河北、山西、内蒙古、陕西、新疆等地的可减排规模及相对减排潜力均较为突出,应是CO2减排的重点区域。研究指出,实施考评体系改革以及破除各类生产要素在不同地区间的流动壁垒,能有效促进低碳经济发展。

Taking CO2 emissions as an undesirable output and GDP as a desirable output,this paper estimates low carbon economy efficiency and potential emissions reduction of China during the period of 2000-2012,based on undesirable output SBM-DEA model.The results show that low carbon economic efficiency of most provinces in China see continuing decrease until 2012,when the efficiency experienced a slight improvement.The majority of Eastern provinces belong to efficient areas while most of the provinces in the Western area,as well as four provinces in Central areas are inefficient.Seeing from the viewpoint of potential volume and the proportion of emission reductions in total emissions,huge carbon abatement space exists in China,and the key areas including regions with huge scale and proportion in CO2 abatement such as Hebei,Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi and Xinjiang,as well as regions seeing a significant scale growth such as Fujian,Guangxi,Jiangxi etc..In addition,planning guidelines and evaluation system reform,factors market reform should be carried out to develop low carbon economy.