区域经济增长传导机制与路径——基于交互效应SpSVAR模型

The Transmission Mechanism and Path of Regional Economic Growth Based on Spatial Panel SVAR with Interactive Effect

构建了交互效应空间面板结构向量自回归模型(SpSVAR)以分析区域经济增长传导机制,建立了共同因素已知情形下交互效应SpSVAR的估计程序,并采用Monte Carlo模拟对模型估计方法的有效性进行了分析。最后,基于本文构建的模型分析了区域经济增长空间传导机制与路径,发现本模型对其具有很好的解释能力。结果证实了区域经济增长传导路径的存在性。从时间上来看,在短期内,经济增长、出口对其邻近省份的经济增长波动较大,甚至出现抑制作用,而消费、投资对其邻近省份的经济增长具有显著的带动作用;在长期内,消费、投资促进作用较为显著,而经济增长、出口促进水平较低。从空间上看,随着空间距离的增加,本省对其邻近省份的传导作用降低。

This paper develops a spatial panel structural vector autoregressive model with interactive effects to analyze the transmission mechanism and path of regional economic growth.Also,we propose the estimation procedures to estimate interactive effects SpSVAR under the circumstances of common factors can be observed.In addition,we apply Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the validity of the estimation of model.At last,we study the regional economic growth transmission mechanism with this model,and it has a good explanation for real economy.The results prove the existence of regional conduction path.From the perspective of time,in the short term,economic growth and export may generate large fluctuations,and even restraining effect,while consumption and investment have significant driving effects.In the long run,export,consumption and investment show obvious promoting effects,but the effect of economic growth is still low.From the perspective of space,the conduction effect of one province for other province reduces with the increase of spatial distances.