大规模灾害应急准备容错规划的目标选择

An Object Selection of Emergency Preparedness Fault-tolerant Planning for Larger-scale Disasters

大规模灾害应对可能会遇到以往少经历或没有经历的意外情景,没有直接的经验可供借鉴。针对上述问题,考虑应急决策者行为的有限理性特征,提出大规模灾害应急准备的容错目标。首先,预设未来可能发生的意外情景,通过大规模灾害造成的人员伤亡、经济损失、社会恐慌和环境破坏四类后果计算其具有区间数形式的损益值;其次,通过应急决策者针对意外情景的损失规避心理特征,根据情景价值、权重及容错成本计算各容错目标的综合价值,根据前景值大小对容错目标进行排序,评估所期望达到的容错等级;最后,以台风暴雨灾害情景为例,验证了所述方法在具体灾害准备的应用,说明了该方法的可行性与有效性。

Large-scale disasters may have accident scenes,in which there is no ready-made experience or available planning for reference.According to the above problem,fault tolerance planning method of emergency preparedness for large disasters is put forward taking limited rational behaviors of emergency decision-makers into account.At first,accident scenes are designed,and the comprehensive value of different scenarios is calculated through casualties,economic losses,social impact and environmental impact.Secondly,the comprehensive value of fault-tolerant object is calculated based on the scene value,weight and fault-tolerance cost,and then the optimal object is determined,the fault tolerance level is evaluated.Finally,taking the typhoon disaster for example,the application of method for specific disaster preparation is verified,and the feasibility and effectiveness of the method is illustrated.